Thursday, July 30, 2009

The 5 Golden Rules on How To Make Money On The Forex Market

1. Keep Cool

Successful traders do not let their trading depend on their emotions or their emotions depend on their trading. They do not risk more because they are feeling lucky, they do not hesitate when the signs are right, or pull out of a trade too soon out of fear. Equally, they are unlikely to celebrate a gain, nor will they sulk, shout or kick the dog when they lose.

A person who is ruled by their emotions will not make it as a forex market trader. Self discipline can be learned but make sure that you have fully mastered your emotions on a demo account before you think of going live. If you are still taking unplanned risks you are not ready for real trading.

2. Think For Yourself

Different traders have different techniques. This means it there is limited value in getting advice from anybody else. In fact, unless you know that the person follows your system and techniques, their advice is probably worthless to you.

Do not copy somebody else's system just because they seem to be making money with it. Do your own research and check everything that you are told. Even then, consider carefully before abandoning the system that you have chosen before. There may be factors that you have not taken into account. Something that works for somebody else will not necessarily work for you.

3. Keep Records

Keep a spreadsheet detailing every trade so that you can see patterns in your own results. You do not necessarily need to use it to change anything, but refer to it often to remind yourself of the many small trades that add up to success or failure.

What should you record? At a minimum, the currency pair, your position and the opening and closing prices. However, these bare facts will be much more informative if you can also add why you took the position. Did it fit the criteria of your system? What made you think that the trend would go your way? When you look back you will have a much better view of why your trading history is going well or not so well.

4. If In Doubt, Don't

Do not open a trade if you are hesitant or unsure about it, provided of course that you have a reason other than fear for your hesitation. A trade can only go one way or the other, so if it is not completely right, it is wrong. Wait. There will be plenty of better opportunities.

5. Limit Your Trades

Do not be drawn into thinking that you must never miss an opportunity. You do not have to be on top of a lot of different currency pairs and jump into every market regardless of what else you may be doing.

Limit the number of open trades that you have. It is not a good idea to have more than two open positions at the same time, and unless your first trade in the forex market is profitable you should not even consider opening a second.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Forex Trading Signal Providers: What To Look For

As the popularity of trading the currency exchange markets online from home increases, the number of forex trading signal providers is increasing too. In fact they are proliferating to such an extent that it can be very difficult to know how to find the best one.

Signals are the main source of information for some traders who do not have the time, experience or inclination to analyze the markets for themselves but do not want to trust their trading to a robot. Equally they can be a useful source of additional information and trades for those who mainly make their own trading decisions.

You usually have to pay to subscribe to a forex signal service. Fees may be charged per month or per signal. Some companies offer a trial period where you can test their service on a demo account. If not, you will be paying out money from the start so to have a chance of making profits, you need to be trading at a level where you can expect to make more money from the signals than they are costing you.

The first thing that most people look at when considering forex trading signal providers is their recent results. This can be a mistake. Recent results are not as important as performance over the long term. So do not be seduced into signing up with a company who make a huge deal of their last month's good results but will not tell you what their signals have made over a full year. Also remember that when they show their profits, they do not have to take account of the cost of the signal service itself.

Remember that most traders starting out in the forex markets lose money. Forex is a risky form of investment and you should be prepared for this. Losses are not always the fault of the information. Even if you are receiving profitable signals, you can make losses if you do not have a clear plan for managing your funds. It is very easy to take bigger risks than you should, so that an unexpected loss has a big impact.

Most companies who offer forex signals will send them to you by email and/or SMS text message. It is best to get both, although SMS alone can be enough for some people. The only problem with SMS messages is that it is very frustrating when one arrives and you are too far from a computer to access your account. If you are a serious forex trader relying on signals, you may want to get your PDA hooked up to your trading account so that you can deal with those signals that arrive when you are stuck in traffic or having lunch with a client.

Remember that the foreign exchange is a 24 hour market. Be prepared to be woken in the middle of night by your cell phone bleeping with an SMS that you need to act on right away. You may want to check how your spouse feels about this too. Even the best information from the top forex trading signal companies is probably not worth getting a divorce for!

Saturday, July 25, 2009

FX Charts: How To Use The MACD Indicator

The MACD or Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is one of the most popular tools on FX charts. It can be used either as an indicator in itself, or as a check when you are mainly relying on other tools.

The MACD chart measures faster and slower moving averages and whether they are getting closer together (converging) or farther apart (diverging).

When they are converging you will see the two lines on the chart approaching each other and the bars on the histogram at the bottom of the chart become smaller. This usually indicates that the current trend is coming to an end or has ended.

Of course the faster line reacts to a change in price movements more quickly than the slower line. So when a new trend forms, the faster line will get closer and finally cross the slower line. If it then separates or diverges from the slower line, this is often an indicator that a new trend has formed.

When the two lines cross, the bars of the histogram will be at zero and then cross their axis so that if they were below the axis before, they are now above it, and vice versa. If a strong new trend is forming, the bars will quickly lengthen in the new direction.

So this crossover could be used as a signal to place an order. You have a buy signal when the faster line crosses the slower line from below, and a sell signal when it crosses from above.

However, there are disadvantages to the MACD which make the crossover unreliable as a self standing signal. The main problem is that even the so-called fast line is significantly behind actual prices because it measures averages of the past prices. So when the market is very volatile, trends could be ending before the MACD crossover marks that they have begun.

Generally the MACD is a better indicator of the strength of a trend than it is of its direction. For this reason some traders ignore the crossover and look instead at the length of the histogram bars. However it is not a good idea to enter a trade on the basis of this histogram (measuring divergence) and then leave it as soon as the price goes against you.

So if you decide to trade the MACD, you should probably use it for both your entry and exit signals. This takes a lot of nerve and experience, and it is not recommended for beginner forex traders. So if you are just starting out, you are probably better advised to base your trading decisions on other indicators on FX charts and refer to the MACD only for background.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

FX Technical Analysis: What Is An MACD Indicator?

The MACD indicator is one of the most useful tools of FX technical analysis but it is not usually well understood. This is a pity because many traders could probably use it more effectively if they understood it better.

The letters of its name stand for Moving Average Convergence Divergence. It is true that the name sounds rather complicated and unfortunately this is often enough to put people off from wanting to know more. So they only use the very simplest applications without understanding the power of the tool itself.

Like most forex tools, this indicator is used to show us when a new trend is forming, so that we can get in on it and make money. The MACD does this by plotting the relationship between two moving averages.

Settings

The settings are usually expressed as three numbers. Commonly you might see 12,26,9.

Traders using FX technical analysis often make the mistake of thinking that the first number on the MACD indicator (12 in this example) relates to the faster moving average line, the second number (26) relates to the slower moving average line and the third number (9) relates to the histogram at the bottom of the chart. That is not quite correct.

In fact the first two numbers (12 and 26) indicate the number of periods used to calculate two moving averages. The faster moving average line, which is often green on the chart, measures the moving average of the difference between the 12 period and the 26 period moving averages.

The slower moving average line is often red on the chart. This line plots the average of the last 9 (or whatever is the third number) periods of the faster moving average line. It usually shows smoother curves because its effect is to smooth out the fast moving average line.

Divergence And Convergence

The histogram that measures convergence and divergence is the series of blocks stretching above and below an axis near the bottom of the chart. This simply records the difference between the faster and slower moving averages.

As the two moving averages separate from each other (diverge), the blocks of the histogram will become longer. As they get closer (converge), the blocks become shorter. If the two lines cross, the blocks of the histogram will switch from stretching above the line to dropping below it or vice versa.

So the histogram measures the convergence and divergence of the two moving averages. And that is why this tool for FX technical analysis is called a Moving Average Convergence Divergence or MACD indicator.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

What is a Stochastic Indicator and How Can I Use it?

A Stochastic Indicator is a measure of price momentum. Otherwise known as Stochastic Oscillator, it was developed by George C Lane in the late 1950's. Based upon a predetermined high and low range, it will indicate a closing price after a consistent level of either high or low closing prices measured over a set number of periods. A consistent high level near the top of the range creates an accumulation or momentum known as 'buying pressure' and a consistently low level near the bottom of the range creates a distribution or momentum known as 'selling pressure' The Stochastic Oscillator will indicate when a trend is about to turn and flags up a buy or sell signal to the trader.

This article tells you how a Stochastic Indicator is calculated and how it is used to help make successful trades.

The calculation is as follows:

100 X ratio (recent close - lowest low)/(highest high - lowest low) = %K, where the lowest low and highest high is taken over a specified period. The most common period is 14days with the highs and lows recorded for each of the 14 days and the recent close is the closing price on the 14th day. This in effect mathematically compares the latest closing price to previous prices over the number of periods being considered. Clearly, since this ration is a percentage figure, it will vary or 'oscillate' between 0 and 100 over a period of time and is represented by a %K line on your chart.

The signal line or %D line is simultaneously plotted alongside the %K line and is normally a 3 period moving average. It effectively smoothes out the oscillations making it easier to spot the turn in trend which is why it is called the signal line.

What I have just described above is in fact known more specifically as a Fast Stochastic Indicator. There is also a Slow Stochastic Indicator and a Full Stochastic Indicator which are similar but more advanced and beyond the scope of this particular article. If you follow my articles on my by blog at http://forexinvestmentmarket.blogspot.com/ I will be posting more on this subject in due course.

There is no need for you understand the mathematics here or to even make this calculation yourself because most trading software will do this for you and will be shown plotted on a chart provided by your system supplier or forex broker account.

However, unless you are using a robot to trade for you, it is necessary for you to know how to use the Stochastic Indicator to help with your forex trading decisions.

In very simple terms, if both the %K and %D lines are high relative to your horizontal 'sell' trigger line then it is a signal that the market is overbought and about to reverse. This is and indication to sell.

Conversely, if the lines are low relative to your 'buy' trigger line then it is a signal that the market is oversold and about to reverse. This is an indication to buy.

Of course the trigger lines are set to suit your own trading style, usually somewhere between 70 and 80 for the high and between 20 and 30 for the low.

Different traders interpret the Stochastic Indicator lines in different ways. For example when they intersect going up or coming down is often used as a trigger to buy or sell. Before making any real trading decisions based on Stochastic Indicators, as always you should paper trade to become familiar with then and the positioning of your horizontal trigger lines. In other words develop your own system.

Never ever use the Stochastic Indicator as your only guide to trading. You should always use a combination of indicators which all point in the same direction before you make a decision.

Friday, July 17, 2009

Foreign Exchange Basics - The 6 Main Influences

To be successful in the forex market is is necessary to understand foreign exchange basics. Technical analysis with charts and trends is one thing but it's equally important to understand the fundamental reasons why the various currencies around the world are constantly moving relative to each other. Being able to understand what influences a currency movement and correctly predict a movement in one direction or another is what makes a successful forex trader. Let's look at the 6 main influences

1. Current Affairs and the News.

Be aware of what is happening around the world especially within the major world economies. Monitor national and international news channels for such events as political unrest, social disorder and in particular financial news.

2. Unpredictable Events

A major natural disaster or significant terrorist activity can influence a sudden currency movement. You should always protect your trades from unpredictable events by using stop losses to minimize the affect of a sudden adverse currency movement.

3. Predictable Events

A political event such as a general election is predictable. A major international sporting event such the Olympic Games is predictable. The important thing here is to be able to understand which currencies are likely to be affected and in which direction they will move. It's not just the events themselves which may influence a currency movement but also the announcement of such an event. So be aware of the timing of such announcements.

4. Financial Reports

Be familiar with the timing of financial reporting from countries of influence. Announcements concerning GDP, interest rates, inflation etc., will often influence currency movements. Monitor the financial results for the major international companies, particularly the banks and other major international financial institutions.

5. Rumors

It's difficult to avoid rumors but you should be very careful if making a trade based on a rumor because very often a rumor is simply no more than just a rumor and often a rumor is spread to fool traders into thinking the market will move one way when in fact the opposite happens.

6. Currency Pairs

You should pay particular attention to applying foreign exchange basics in the two countries concerned with your currency pairs. It is fact that the US dollar has the strongest influence on other currencies particularly if one of the pair is a minor currency.

The problem for the beginner in forex trading is how to apply all this fundamental analysis to successful trading. The best advice I can give is to gain experience with fundamental analysis and how each type of influence effects currency movement before you use it to make real trades. After a while you will develop a feel which will give you more confidence as you become familiar with the foreign exchange basics.

Read more about foreign exchange basics in my new eBook - Quick And Easy Forex Trading is aimed at understanding the fundamentals of forex trading...it's on a special launch offer now Forex Trading eBook

Sunday, July 12, 2009

FAPTurbo Evolution Pre-Review

FAPTurbo Evolution Pre-Review

In this FAPTurbo Evolution pre-review I look at this new forex trading robot due to hit the market on the 14th July 2009.

As you will know if you have been around the forex market for a while, FAPTurbo was the big automated forex software hit of late 2008 and is still trading well in mid 2009. The economic downturn seemed to do nothing to prevent this automated forex trading system from making money for its users. So why the release of FAPT Evolution, the new revision of FAPTurbo from the same developers?

The first thing to note is that FAPT Evolution is designed to work with one brokerage company in particular, the Swiss based Dukascopy. In fact until they ran into trademark issues the developers' original plan was to name this new robot FAPT Swiss.

However, the robot remains independent and Dukascopy will not be providing support for the automated software, only for their own trading platform. Still, this makes FAPTurbo Evolution a very different creature from the old style expert advisor forex robots that, like the original version of FAPTurbo, run on Metatrader 4 and are compatible with a number of brokers who support this platform.

Dukascopy is a highly regarded broker and we do not envisage the close dependence to be a problem. However, if you were thinking of getting FAPT Evolution to run with a few hundred dollars in a mini trading account you will have to think again. The minimum investment at Dukascopy is $10,000. So this is a not a robot for the small time investor.

For obvious reasons the developers are planning to limit the number of copies sold. FAPT Evolution is already making a big noise in the market and Dukascopy may be flooded with new account enquiries, so we recommend you get in fast if you want in.

The development team is fast becoming the market leader in the world of forex robots. They say themselves that "FAPT Evolution is the most powerful and stable Forex Robot we have ever developed, period."

Some patience may be needed in the first few days while the brokers deal with so many new accounts and you deal with the learning curve required to set up your new robot. However, the software will have its own forum where you can pick up support and suggestions from other users as well as the developers. This takes a lot of pressure off the developers' own support system and should be your first port of call for any minor issues.

The differences here mean that 'Evolution' was maybe not the best choice of name. This new version of FAP Turbo is not so much a new model as an alternative choice for a different type of investor. In short, the release of Evolution should not stop you from buying the original FAPTurbo with its proven results, if that would suit you better.

So for beginners and those with smaller investment funds, I recommend starting out with the original version of FAPTurbo which you can operate on a mini account with several brokers.

FAPTurbo

However, serious forex brokers should take a close look at FAPT Evolution. My conclusion from this FAPTurbo Evolution pre-review is that this could revolutionize your forex trading and take automated forex systems to a whole new dimension.

FAPTurbo Evolution

For a full FAPTurbo Review register on my blog and as soon as it is ready I will send it to you, also if there any changes to the launch program I will let you know.

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Forex Trading Strategies: 3 Golden Rules

When you have read a few forex books or visited a few online currency trading forums, you will quickly realize that there are almost as many different forex trading strategies as there are traders. People have their own style; but more than that, in currency trading there are many different ways of making money.

So there is not one top forex system that you must follow to profit from foreign exchange trading. However, there are some guidelines that apply to the way in which you approach your trading and these are true for just about anybody. I call them the golden rules of trading.

1. Follow The Trends

Most forex trading strategies and systems focus on identifying trends and there is a good reason for that. Whether the trend shows a rise or a fall, get in to go long or short as appropriate and do not go against it. Bucking the trend will see you losing money fast.

2. Safeguard Your Funds

Risking too much on one trade has been the downfall of many a promising trader. Never risk a lot of money on a single trade, however strong your feelings may be that this one cannot go wrong. They can all go wrong.

So how much do you risk? It depends on your strategy and how much it matters to you if you lose all of your funds, but never more than 5% of your balance. 2% per trade is a safer option.

Some people maintain the percentage as their funds increase, so that they gradually risk more in real terms on each trade. That is up to you but consider carefully before you do this. When you have more money in your account, you will probably be more unhappy if it is wiped out, so you may want to keep the same position size (reducing your percentage risk) as your funds increase.

3. Set Goals For Each Trade

Have a clear profit goal for each trade, so that before you enter, you have already decided when you will take the profit and close. Do not get greedy and try to stay in there for more and more.

In the same way, if it turns bad, do not try to hold on in the hope that the market will turn back your way. Cut your losses and get out.

Using stop losses to do this automatically is a very wise strategy.

Those are the first three golden rules of currency trading: the guidelines that can help you develop profitable forex trading strategies, whatever your system.